Calibrating SPY · lineage: KAIROS

SPY KAIROS

Paper trading. Real market prices · no real money · no broker orders. Trades go live on your own account only when a Sentinel reaches the Live stage.
Stage lifecycle
Backtested
2006-01-01 → 08-12-31
Paper Calibration Active
2026-05-15 → now
Beta Live
Not yet
Production Live
Not yet

Performance is disclosed separately for each stage. Backtested results don't predict paper-calibration results; paper results don't predict live-trading results. Stage transitions require admin step-up + a permanent audit-log entry.

CAGR · annualized
69.1%
over 2006-05-08 to 2026-05-08 validation window
Win rate
97.4%
Max drawdown
−5.36%
Sharpe ratio
9.02
Paper calibration record · 32 trades · Updated daily · See full record →
0.65% / mo on average daily balance · min $2,500 · capital stays in your own brokerage account
Reserve your founders' position
Monthly fee 0.65% / mo
Account minimum $2,500
Cycles per active day up to 1
Underlying SPY · lineage: KAIROS

Wealth creation over time

Capital base: $2,500

Compounded cumulative return per recorded trade. Slide the capital control to see what 32 trades would have grown to at your account size. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

+18.33% +13.44% +8.56% +3.67% -1.22% 2026-05-15 2026-05-27 2026-06-08 S&P -0.52% +18.33% $—
SPY KAIROS · +18.33% S&P 500 (buy-and-hold) · -0.52%
Starting
$100,000
Today
$—
Net gain
$—
Return
+18.33%

How it trades

SPY KAIROS runs a fixed-rule SPX 0DTE iron condor strategy, scaled to SPY for accounts in the $2,500–$25,000 range. The rule set is non-discretionary: open, manage, close, reassess. On an active session it executes a single iron condor, cycling one at a time — at any single moment the account holds at most one open position from this Sentinel. On days when filters aren't satisfied it stands down entirely.

Entry/exit timing, strike-selection criteria, sizing rules, and filter thresholds are trade secrets and not disclosed.

SPY KAIROS · today
$176 (+0.00%)
✓ Profitable day
Capital: $100,000,000 → $100,001,833 (+18.33% since start).
Daily record
17 of 17 trading day(s) profitable since cycling launch.
Per-trade detail (today)
Today: 2 trade(s) · 2 win(s) · 0 loss(es) · 100.0% per-trade win rate.
  • WIN $105
  • WIN $71
Historical Risk Profile ▸ tap to expand
Model-derived · real-broker fill validation in progressThe figures above are 20-year historical backtest projections of the deployed strategy. First Alpaca paper fills on spy-eli (May 26) showed the broker's live mid was substantially lower than the model's expected credit per contract. Real fill capture begins 2026-05-27 — these numbers may differ materially from broker-confirmed live performance.
Backtest window2006-05-08 to 2026-05-08
Annualized return (CAGR)69.1% (model ideal — real-world expectations lower)
Max drawdown observed5.4%
Single worst dayPending — full daily-granularity sweep in progress
Win rate97.4% per-trade backtest · ~85% expected live
Sharpe (backtest)9.02
Source: validated_stats.json (pre-sweep summary). Worst-day pending the full sweep.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. SPX 0DTE options trading carries substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.
How this record is stored 4-LAYER TRV ▸ tap to expand
Every trade this Sentinel records is durably persisted at four independent layers — so the record you see above can be reconstructed from any one of them, even if any single layer is lost.
  1. Layer 1 · Live bot database — the bot writes each open and close to its own SQLite database on a Render persistent disk; survives container restarts and redeploys.
  2. Layer 2 · Platform canonical history — the public ledger you are reading (data/spy_kairos_canonical_history.json in the open-source platform repo) — the public-tier projection, verifiable on GitHub.
  3. Layer 3 · Internal full-tier archive — the same trades stored with every trade-secret field (volatility, signal score, strike levels, position size, reasoning) in the private sovereign-trade-records-internal repository — reconstructible audit trail for compliance review.
  4. Layer 4 · Hash-verified snapshot archives — immutable point-in-time snapshots of the canonical record, written via scripts/snapshot_paper_history.py with SHA-256 hashes that detect any post-hoc edit. Each strategy-stage transition (paper → beta → production) freezes the prior stage permanently.
Code: snapshot_paper_history.py · data/*_canonical_history.json. Sovereign Trading Capital, Inc. operates the strategy logic; capital stays in your own brokerage account.

Calibration record

Every closed trade for SPY KAIROS, most recent first. 32 trades recorded. Position structure, strikes, and decision triggers are trade secrets and not disclosed.

Closed at Stage Outcome P&L Running total
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$71.31 +$1,833.22
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$104.53 +$1,761.91
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$82.69 +$1,657.38
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$43.19 +$1,574.69
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$41.65 +$1,531.50
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$81.05 +$1,489.85
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$78.40 +$1,408.80
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$47.28 +$1,330.40
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$45.69 +$1,283.12
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$46.93 +$1,237.43
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$26.13 +$1,190.50
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$46.53 +$1,164.37
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$42.23 +$1,117.84
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$50.77 +$1,075.61
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$47.41 +$1,024.84
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$60.25 +$977.43
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$52.64 +$917.18
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$51.66 +$864.54
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$51.01 +$812.88
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$48.67 +$761.87
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$49.15 +$713.20
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$50.16 +$664.05
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$62.16 +$613.89
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$65.37 +$551.73
2026-05-20 Paper Win +$64.27 +$486.36
2026-05-20 Paper Win +$67.56 +$422.09
2026-05-19 Paper Win +$67.17 +$354.53
2026-05-19 Paper Win +$67.35 +$287.36
2026-05-18 Paper Win +$73.71 +$220.01
2026-05-18 Paper Win +$74.37 +$146.30
2026-05-15 Paper Win +$36.52 +$71.93
2026-05-15 Paper Win +$35.41 +$35.41

Related Sentinels

SPY KAIROS · 0.65% / mo · min $2,500
Reserve your founders' position