Calibrating Conservative SPX

Polaris

The conservative anchor — steady, measured, the foundation.

Paper trading. Real market prices · no real money · no broker orders. Trades go live on your own account only when a Sentinel reaches the Live stage.
Stage lifecycle
Backtested
2006-01-01 → 08-12-31
Paper Calibration Active
2026-05-08 → now
Beta Live
Not yet
Production Live
Not yet

Performance is disclosed separately for each stage. Backtested results don't predict paper-calibration results; paper results don't predict live-trading results. Stage transitions require admin step-up + a permanent audit-log entry.

CAGR · annualized
32.3%
over 2006-05-08 to 2026-05-08 validation window
Win rate
95.8%
Max drawdown
−1.42%
Sharpe ratio
7.97
Paper calibration record · 72 trades · Updated daily · See full record →
0.64% / mo on average daily balance · min $25,000 · capital stays in your own brokerage account
Reserve your founders' position
Monthly fee 0.64% / mo
Account minimum $25,000
Cycles per active day up to 5
Underlying SPX

Wealth creation over time

Capital base: $100,000

Compounded cumulative return per recorded trade. Slide the capital control to see what 72 trades would have grown to at your account size. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

+19.52% +14.60% +9.68% +4.76% -0.16% 2026-05-08 2026-05-26 2026-06-08 S&P +0.55% +19.52% $—
Polaris · +19.52% S&P 500 (buy-and-hold) · +0.55%
Starting
$100,000
Today
$—
Net gain
$—
Return
+19.52%

Who it's for

Polaris is for the founder who values steadiness over excitement. Conservative position sizing, tight risk controls, measured deployment. If you're allocating capital you cannot afford to see swing around, this is your starting point. Polaris is the Sentinel that does the least at any one moment — and over a long horizon, that restraint is the point.

How it trades

Polaris runs a fixed-rule SPX 0DTE iron condor strategy. The rule set is non-discretionary: open, manage, close, reassess. On an active session it executes up to 5 sequential positions, cycling one at a time — at any single moment the account holds at most one open position from this Sentinel. On days when filters aren't satisfied it stands down entirely.

Sample trade. {'setup': 'A routine session — index quiet, no obvious catalyst.', 'entry': 'Mid-morning, after the open settled.', 'structure': 'One SPX 0DTE iron condor: a put credit spread well below the market and a call credit spread well above it, each wing 50 points wide. Both short strikes placed far from where the index was trading.', 'size_at_50k': 'On a hypothetical $50,000 account, a small single-digit contract count — Polaris deliberately under-uses available buying power.', 'max_risk': 'Defined and small: the width of one spread minus the credit received, times the contracts. You always know the worst case before the trade is placed.', 'outcome': 'The index drifted sideways; both spreads expired worthless and the full credit was kept. A typical Polaris day is uneventful — that is the design.'}

Entry/exit timing, strike-selection criteria, sizing rules, and filter thresholds are trade secrets and not disclosed.

POLARIS · today
$1,623,880 (+1.62%)
✓ Profitable day
Capital: $100,000,000 → $119,520,835 (+19.52% since start).
Daily record
20 of 20 trading day(s) profitable since cycling launch.
Per-trade detail (today)
Today: 4 trade(s) · 4 win(s) · 0 loss(es) · 100.0% per-trade win rate.
  • WIN $480,994
  • WIN $326,350
  • WIN $319,510
  • WIN $497,026
Historical Risk Profile ▸ tap to expand
Backtest window2006-05-08 to 2026-05-08
Annualized return (CAGR)32.3% (model ideal — real-world expectations lower)
Max drawdown observed1.4%
Single worst dayPending — full daily-granularity sweep in progress
Win rate95.8% per-trade backtest · ~85% expected live
Sharpe (backtest)7.97
Source: validated_stats.json (pre-sweep summary). Worst-day pending the full sweep.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. SPX 0DTE options trading carries substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.
How this record is stored 4-LAYER TRV ▸ tap to expand
Every trade this Sentinel records is durably persisted at four independent layers — so the record you see above can be reconstructed from any one of them, even if any single layer is lost.
  1. Layer 1 · Live bot database — the bot writes each open and close to its own SQLite database on a Render persistent disk; survives container restarts and redeploys.
  2. Layer 2 · Platform canonical history — the public ledger you are reading (data/polaris_canonical_history.json in the open-source platform repo) — the public-tier projection, verifiable on GitHub.
  3. Layer 3 · Internal full-tier archive — the same trades stored with every trade-secret field (volatility, signal score, strike levels, position size, reasoning) in the private sovereign-trade-records-internal repository — reconstructible audit trail for compliance review.
  4. Layer 4 · Hash-verified snapshot archives — immutable point-in-time snapshots of the canonical record, written via scripts/snapshot_paper_history.py with SHA-256 hashes that detect any post-hoc edit. Each strategy-stage transition (paper → beta → production) freezes the prior stage permanently.
Code: snapshot_paper_history.py · data/*_canonical_history.json. Sovereign Trading Capital, Inc. operates the strategy logic; capital stays in your own brokerage account.

Calibration record

Every closed trade for Polaris, most recent first. 72 trades recorded. Position structure, strikes, and decision triggers are trade secrets and not disclosed.

Closed at Stage Outcome P&L Running total
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$497,025.64 +$19,520,834.55
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$319,510.09 +$19,023,808.91
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$326,350.36 +$18,704,298.82
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$480,993.77 +$18,377,948.46
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$520,873.74 +$17,896,954.69
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$345,456.80 +$17,376,080.95
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$291,551.97 +$17,030,624.15
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$270,681.31 +$16,739,072.18
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$190,878.35 +$16,468,390.87
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$258,446.52 +$16,277,512.52
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$264,124.71 +$16,019,066.00
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$295,693.74 +$15,754,941.29
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$295,007.53 +$15,459,247.55
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$293,653.79 +$15,164,240.02
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$277,412.65 +$14,870,586.23
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$271,488.74 +$14,593,173.58
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$256,089.43 +$14,321,684.84
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$262,742.33 +$14,065,595.41
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$264,562.24 +$13,802,853.08
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$267,188.78 +$13,538,290.84
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$97,625.12 +$13,271,102.06
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$97,498.59 +$13,173,476.94
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$107,521.01 +$13,075,978.35
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$102,518.50 +$12,968,457.34
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$164,631.12 +$12,865,938.84
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$167,515.62 +$12,701,307.72
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$181,582.87 +$12,533,792.10
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$196,552.37 +$12,352,209.23
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$183,560.08 +$12,155,656.86
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$203,663.00 +$11,972,096.78
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$188,741.15 +$11,768,433.78
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$219,065.48 +$11,579,692.63
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$305,571.01 +$11,360,627.15
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$313,760.02 +$11,055,056.14
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$315,332.30 +$10,741,296.12
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$325,153.92 +$10,425,963.82
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$322,481.39 +$10,100,809.90
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$290,138.82 +$9,778,328.51
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$278,877.75 +$9,488,189.69
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$220,103.07 +$9,209,311.94
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$224,329.79 +$8,989,208.87
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$221,515.92 +$8,764,879.08
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$217,022.06 +$8,543,363.16
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$220,990.84 +$8,326,341.10
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$237,213.33 +$8,105,350.26
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$224,962.87 +$7,868,136.93
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$328,947.01 +$7,643,174.06
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$320,982.20 +$7,314,227.05
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$316,799.21 +$6,993,244.85
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$345,358.80 +$6,676,445.64
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FAQ

How fast-compounding is this Sentinel?

It isn't. Polaris is the most conservative Sentinel in the family — the smallest position sizes, the widest distance between its short strikes and the market, the lowest published drawdown. If you want excitement, this is the wrong Sentinel.

What kind of drawdown can I expect?

The validated record shows the smallest maximum drawdown of any Sentinel. That figure is shown on this page and pulled from our single source of truth. It is a historical observation, not a promise — live trading can exceed it, and 0DTE options carry the risk of a fast loss on a bad day.

Can I use this with other Sentinels at the same time?

Yes. Many founders pair Polaris with a higher-conviction Sentinel — Polaris as the steady base, the other as the growth sleeve. Each Sentinel is billed separately at its own monthly rate on the capital you assign to it.

What's different about this vs. the other Sentinels?

Polaris trades the least and risks the least per trade. Everything else in the family pushes harder on one dial or another — more contracts, closer strikes, more active configurations. Polaris is the anchor the others are measured against.

Related Sentinels

Polaris · 0.64% / mo · min $25,000
Reserve your founders' position