Calibrating Balanced SPX

Kairos

The opportunistic — moves when timing aligns, holds when patience demands.

Paper trading. Real market prices · no real money · no broker orders. Trades go live on your own account only when a Sentinel reaches the Live stage.
Stage lifecycle
Backtested
2006-01-01 → 08-12-31
Paper Calibration Active
2026-05-08 → now
Beta Live
Not yet
Production Live
Not yet

Performance is disclosed separately for each stage. Backtested results don't predict paper-calibration results; paper results don't predict live-trading results. Stage transitions require admin step-up + a permanent audit-log entry.

CAGR · annualized
36.9%
over 2006-05-08 to 2026-05-08 validation window
Win rate
91.3%
Max drawdown
−3.16%
Sharpe ratio
6.33
Paper calibration record · 38 trades · Updated daily · See full record →
0.65% / mo on average daily balance · min $25,000 · capital stays in your own brokerage account
Reserve your founders' position
Monthly fee 0.65% / mo
Account minimum $25,000
Cycles per active day up to 5
Underlying SPX

Wealth creation over time

Capital base: $100,000

Compounded cumulative return per recorded trade. Slide the capital control to see what 38 trades would have grown to at your account size. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

+34.05% +25.50% +16.95% +8.40% -0.16% 2026-05-08 2026-05-26 2026-06-08 S&P +0.55% +34.05% $—
Kairos · +34.05% S&P 500 (buy-and-hold) · +0.55%
Starting
$100,000
Today
$—
Net gain
$—
Return
+34.05%

Who it's for

Kairos is for the founder who wants more than the anchor strategies offer but isn't reaching for the top of the risk curve. It's a balanced Sentinel — a handful of trades on a day that warrants them, restraint on a day that doesn't. Moderate sizing, moderate frequency, a deliberate middle path.

How it trades

Kairos runs a fixed-rule SPX 0DTE iron condor strategy. The rule set is non-discretionary: open, manage, close, reassess. On an active session it executes up to 5 sequential positions, cycling one at a time — at any single moment the account holds at most one open position from this Sentinel. On days when filters aren't satisfied it stands down entirely.

Sample trade. {'setup': 'A session with enough movement to be interesting but no shock.', 'entry': 'Through the morning, as conditions warranted — not on a fixed clock.', 'structure': 'SPX 0DTE iron condors — put spread below, call spread above, fixed-width wings — placed when the day looked like one Kairos should participate in.', 'size_at_50k': 'On a hypothetical $50,000 account, a moderate contract count per trade across a small number of trades.', 'max_risk': 'Per trade: spread width minus credit, times contracts. Across the day, the sum of those defined-risk positions — bounded and known.', 'outcome': "Most spreads expired worthless; the day's net was the kept credit less any spread that finished in the money. A representative Kairos day is a few small wins, occasionally offset by one give-back."}

Entry/exit timing, strike-selection criteria, sizing rules, and filter thresholds are trade secrets and not disclosed.

KAIROS · today
$2,865,286 (+2.87%)
✓ Profitable day
Capital: $100,000,000 → $134,049,298 (+34.05% since start).
Daily record
20 of 20 trading day(s) profitable since cycling launch.
Per-trade detail (today)
Today: 2 trade(s) · 2 win(s) · 0 loss(es) · 100.0% per-trade win rate.
  • WIN $1,495,324
  • WIN $1,369,961
Historical Risk Profile ▸ tap to expand
Backtest window2006-05-08 to 2026-05-08
Annualized return (CAGR)36.9% (model ideal — real-world expectations lower)
Max drawdown observed3.2%
Single worst dayPending — full daily-granularity sweep in progress
Win rate91.3% per-trade backtest · ~85% expected live
Sharpe (backtest)6.33
Source: validated_stats.json (pre-sweep summary). Worst-day pending the full sweep.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. SPX 0DTE options trading carries substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.
How this record is stored 4-LAYER TRV ▸ tap to expand
Every trade this Sentinel records is durably persisted at four independent layers — so the record you see above can be reconstructed from any one of them, even if any single layer is lost.
  1. Layer 1 · Live bot database — the bot writes each open and close to its own SQLite database on a Render persistent disk; survives container restarts and redeploys.
  2. Layer 2 · Platform canonical history — the public ledger you are reading (data/kairos_canonical_history.json in the open-source platform repo) — the public-tier projection, verifiable on GitHub.
  3. Layer 3 · Internal full-tier archive — the same trades stored with every trade-secret field (volatility, signal score, strike levels, position size, reasoning) in the private sovereign-trade-records-internal repository — reconstructible audit trail for compliance review.
  4. Layer 4 · Hash-verified snapshot archives — immutable point-in-time snapshots of the canonical record, written via scripts/snapshot_paper_history.py with SHA-256 hashes that detect any post-hoc edit. Each strategy-stage transition (paper → beta → production) freezes the prior stage permanently.
Code: snapshot_paper_history.py · data/*_canonical_history.json. Sovereign Trading Capital, Inc. operates the strategy logic; capital stays in your own brokerage account.

Calibration record

Every closed trade for Kairos, most recent first. 38 trades recorded. Position structure, strikes, and decision triggers are trade secrets and not disclosed.

Closed at Stage Outcome P&L Running total
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$1,369,961.41 +$34,049,298.49
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$1,495,324.38 +$32,679,337.08
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$1,009,511.32 +$31,184,012.70
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$823,391.07 +$30,174,501.38
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$852,863.51 +$29,351,110.31
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$967,152.18 +$28,498,246.80
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$925,492.38 +$27,531,094.62
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$885,077.30 +$26,605,602.24
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$845,227.08 +$25,720,524.94
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$867,683.53 +$24,875,297.86
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$520,106.88 +$24,007,614.33
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$859,691.35 +$23,487,507.45
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$724,951.52 +$22,627,816.10
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$755,206.89 +$21,902,864.58
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$656,335.08 +$21,147,657.69
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$698,844.99 +$20,491,322.61
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$1,015,350.86 +$19,792,477.62
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$922,964.67 +$18,777,126.76
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$834,256.15 +$17,854,162.09
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$818,322.46 +$17,019,905.94
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$830,089.91 +$16,201,583.48
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$693,198.10 +$15,371,493.57
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$827,348.10 +$14,678,295.47
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$839,623.33 +$13,850,947.37
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$984,888.69 +$13,011,324.04
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$1,109,255.43 +$12,026,435.35
2026-05-20 Paper Win +$1,078,668.04 +$10,917,179.92
2026-05-20 Paper Win +$869,788.89 +$9,838,511.88
2026-05-19 Paper Win +$847,936.08 +$8,968,722.99
2026-05-19 Paper Win +$858,456.64 +$8,120,786.91
2026-05-18 Paper Win +$925,428.07 +$7,262,330.27
2026-05-18 Paper Win +$942,554.87 +$6,336,902.20
2026-05-15 Paper Win +$978,391.33 +$5,394,347.33
2026-05-15 Paper Win +$620,585.71 +$4,415,956.00
2026-05-14 Paper Win +$785,334.14 +$3,795,370.29
2026-05-14 Paper Win +$804,276.24 +$3,010,036.15
2026-05-12 Paper Win +$1,509,683.93 +$2,205,759.91
2026-05-08 Paper Win +$696,075.98 +$696,075.98

FAQ

How fast-compounding is this Sentinel?

Moderate — squarely in the middle of the family. More active than Polaris or Genesis V1, more restrained than Precision or Eli.

What kind of drawdown can I expect?

The validated maximum drawdown shown on this page sits in the lower-middle of the family. It's a historical figure, not a guarantee — live drawdowns can be larger, and 0DTE options can lose quickly on the wrong day.

Can I run Kairos alongside other Sentinels?

Yes. It's a common middle layer between a conservative anchor and a higher-conviction sleeve. Each Sentinel bills separately on its assigned capital.

What's different about this vs. the other Sentinels?

Kairos is the balanced option — it takes a few trades on days that justify them and stays small. It's the bridge between the cautious end of the family and the accelerated end.

Related Sentinels

Kairos · 0.65% / mo · min $25,000
Reserve your founders' position