Calibrating SPX

Prosper

Paper trading. Real market prices · no real money · no broker orders. Trades go live on your own account only when a Sentinel reaches the Live stage.
Stage lifecycle
Backtested
Not yet
Paper Calibration Active
2026-05-07 → now
Beta Live
Not yet
Production Live
Not yet

Performance is disclosed separately for each stage. Backtested results don't predict paper-calibration results; paper results don't predict live-trading results. Stage transitions require admin step-up + a permanent audit-log entry.

CAGR · annualized
80.9%
over 20-year validation window
Win rate
Max drawdown
Sharpe ratio
Paper calibration record · 47 trades · Updated daily · See full record →
0.00% / mo on average daily balance · min $250,000 · capital stays in your own brokerage account
Reserve your founders' position
Monthly fee 0.00% / mo
Account minimum $250,000
Cycles per active day up to 7
Underlying SPX

Wealth creation over time

Capital base: $100,000

Compounded cumulative return per recorded trade. Slide the capital control to see what 47 trades would have grown to at your account size. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

+35.67% +26.75% +17.84% +8.92% +0.00% 2026-05-07 2026-05-22 2026-06-08 S&P +2.02% +35.67% $—
Prosper · +35.67% S&P 500 (buy-and-hold) · +2.02%
Starting
$100,000
Today
$—
Net gain
$—
Return
+35.67%

How it trades

Prosper runs a fixed-rule SPX 0DTE iron condor strategy. The rule set is non-discretionary: open, manage, close, reassess. On an active session it executes up to 7 sequential positions, cycling one at a time — at any single moment the account holds at most one open position from this Sentinel. On days when filters aren't satisfied it stands down entirely.

Entry/exit timing, strike-selection criteria, sizing rules, and filter thresholds are trade secrets and not disclosed.

PROSPER · today
$2,080,325 (+2.08%)
✓ Profitable day
Capital: $100,000,000 → $135,670,385 (+35.67% since start).
Daily record
23 of 23 trading day(s) profitable since cycling launch.
Per-trade detail (today)
Today: 2 trade(s) · 2 win(s) · 0 loss(es) · 100.0% per-trade win rate.
  • WIN $1,138,607
  • WIN $941,718
Historical Risk Profile ▸ tap to expand
Backtest window2016–2026 (10yr)
Annualized return (CAGR)80.9% (model ideal — real-world expectations lower)
Single worst dayPending — full daily-granularity sweep in progress
Source: validated_stats.json (pre-sweep summary). Worst-day pending the full sweep.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. SPX 0DTE options trading carries substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.
How this record is stored 4-LAYER TRV ▸ tap to expand
Every trade this Sentinel records is durably persisted at four independent layers — so the record you see above can be reconstructed from any one of them, even if any single layer is lost.
  1. Layer 1 · Live bot database — the bot writes each open and close to its own SQLite database on a Render persistent disk; survives container restarts and redeploys.
  2. Layer 2 · Platform canonical history — the public ledger you are reading (data/prosper_canonical_history.json in the open-source platform repo) — the public-tier projection, verifiable on GitHub.
  3. Layer 3 · Internal full-tier archive — the same trades stored with every trade-secret field (volatility, signal score, strike levels, position size, reasoning) in the private sovereign-trade-records-internal repository — reconstructible audit trail for compliance review.
  4. Layer 4 · Hash-verified snapshot archives — immutable point-in-time snapshots of the canonical record, written via scripts/snapshot_paper_history.py with SHA-256 hashes that detect any post-hoc edit. Each strategy-stage transition (paper → beta → production) freezes the prior stage permanently.
Code: snapshot_paper_history.py · data/*_canonical_history.json. Sovereign Trading Capital, Inc. operates the strategy logic; capital stays in your own brokerage account.

Calibration record

Every closed trade for Prosper, most recent first. 47 trades recorded. Position structure, strikes, and decision triggers are trade secrets and not disclosed.

Closed at Stage Outcome P&L Running total
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$941,718.20 +$35,670,385.02
2026-06-08 Paper Win +$1,138,607.26 +$34,728,666.82
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$572,173.28 +$33,590,059.56
2026-06-05 Paper Win +$500,489.33 +$33,017,886.28
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$862,413.27 +$32,517,396.95
2026-06-04 Paper Win +$911,149.48 +$31,654,983.68
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$503,371.91 +$30,743,834.20
2026-06-03 Paper Win +$500,713.40 +$30,240,462.29
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$1,027,444.89 +$29,739,748.89
2026-06-02 Paper Win +$979,909.63 +$28,712,304.00
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$1,029,688.48 +$27,732,394.37
2026-06-01 Paper Win +$483,696.85 +$26,702,705.89
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$794,370.35 +$26,219,009.04
2026-05-29 Paper Win +$922,293.25 +$25,424,638.69
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$882,690.95 +$24,502,345.44
2026-05-28 Paper Win +$511,878.05 +$23,619,654.49
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$945,387.12 +$23,107,776.44
2026-05-27 Paper Win +$1,123,959.07 +$22,162,389.32
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$1,047,476.37 +$21,038,430.25
2026-05-26 Paper Win +$1,067,965.44 +$19,990,953.88
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$1,006,748.09 +$18,922,988.44
2026-05-25 Paper Win +$1,008,950.29 +$17,916,240.35
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$997,134.23 +$16,907,290.06
2026-05-22 Paper Win +$1,516,510.76 +$15,910,155.83
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$1,034,414.27 +$14,393,645.07
2026-05-21 Paper Win +$619,276.92 +$13,359,230.80
2026-05-20 Paper Win +$1,122,200.75 +$12,739,953.88
2026-05-20 Paper Win +$1,133,585.56 +$11,617,753.13
2026-05-19 Paper Win +$618,178.06 +$10,484,167.57
2026-05-19 Paper Win +$427,623.67 +$9,865,989.51
2026-05-18 Paper Win +$486,418.90 +$9,438,365.84
2026-05-18 Paper Win +$443,292.70 +$8,951,946.94
2026-05-15 Paper Win +$517,853.35 +$8,508,654.24
2026-05-15 Paper Win +$455,093.02 +$7,990,800.89
2026-05-14 Paper Win +$1,230,995.76 +$7,535,707.87
2026-05-14 Paper Win +$1,164,977.14 +$6,304,712.11
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$420,417.07 +$5,139,734.97
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$408,652.86 +$4,719,317.90
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$426,933.73 +$4,310,665.04
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$405,012.60 +$3,883,731.31
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$409,481.65 +$3,478,718.71
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$873,900.78 +$3,069,237.06
2026-05-13 Paper Win +$614,157.77 +$2,195,336.28
2026-05-12 Paper Win +$438,659.68 +$1,581,178.51
2026-05-11 Paper Win +$433,926.82 +$1,142,518.83
2026-05-08 Paper Win +$348,579.96 +$708,592.01
2026-05-07 Paper Win +$360,012.05 +$360,012.05

Related Sentinels

Prosper · 0.00% / mo · min $250,000
Reserve your founders' position